Deep-dive analysis based on historical data and long-term patterns in precious metals markets.
January Has Been Gold’s Best Month for Two Decades Between 2000 and 2024, gold posted gains in January 75% of the time. The average return during that month exceeded 2%, making it the single strongest month on the calendar for the metal. That’s not a coincidence or a statistical quirk. Its a pattern driven by … Read more
On March 10, 2023, Silicon Valley Bank , the 16th largest bank in the United States , failed. Within days, Signature Bank collapsed. First Republic followed weeks later. Gold’s response was immediate: a 9% surge within just weeks as institutional capital rushed into the metal that doesn’t have a counterparty. This pattern is older than … Read more
When gold hit its first record high in late 2024, the average year-end forecast from major investment banks was wrong by hundreds of dollars per ounce. By the time those forecasts were revised, gold had run further still. The pattern repeated through 2025. Every quarter, analysts at firms like Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Bank of America, … Read more
In June 2022, US inflation hit 9.1% , the highest reading since November 1981. Conventional wisdom said gold should have soared. Instead, gold fell, declining from its March 2022 peak above $2,070 to below $1,650 by the end of the year. Meanwhile, during the 1970s, when inflation hit similar levels, gold rose from $35 per … Read more
In 2008, the US Dollar Index dropped to a multi-decade low of 71. In that same window, gold roughly doubled from around $650 to $1,000 per ounce. The mirror image showed up again in 2014-2015, when the dollar surged nearly 30% and gold fell from $1,345 to $1,050. And it appeared once more during the … Read more